The US election and NATO: What’s at stake

Several developments in the U.S. presidential race, including former President Donald Trump’s pick of JD Vance as vice president earlier this month, have left European NATO member countries worried as they contemplate the possibility of the U.S. reducing its leadership role in the treaty organization — or pulling out altogether — analysts say. American presidents from both parties have long criticized a lack of burden sharing within NATO, pointing to many countries not matching the 2% of GDP defense spending commitment. With the upcoming U.S. presidential election and Trump and Vance’s criticisms of the alliance, NATO’s future is effectively on the ballot, some foreign policy experts say.

A Trump and Vance ticket

Klaus Larres, a history professor at the University of North Carolina and a fellow at the Wilson Center, noted that not all campaign rhetoric translates into actions once in office. Trump is more skeptical of NATO than President Joe Biden’s administration, but since more countries are meeting the defense spending commitment, that grievance may diminish, Larres said. “He probably will not repeat again that he wants to leave NATO, but he probably will make the United States less active in NATO and less prominent and less being the clear leader of NATO,” he said. Larres said Vance’s inexperience in foreign policy will require a steep learning curve, which could prompt him to reconsider his instinctive isolationism. “He is an isolationist, and he wants to withdraw from Ukraine,” Larres said. “He doesn’t seem to see how detrimental that also would be for the United States and not just for the Europeans or for Ukraine, that it would have really devastating effects on America’s role in the world. He doesn’t seem to understand that.” With 40% of global trade involving the U.S. and Europe, a serious strain in relations would harm America not only in security but also in trade and economic policy, Larres said.

A Harris ticket

Harris is expected to be the Democratic presidential nominee, following Biden’s announcement that he won’t seek reelection. Harris, who as of this writing has not announced a vice presidential candidate, will face a formal nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. During his presidency, Biden expanded and defended NATO while bringing the Atlantic allies closer together, Larres said. Foreign policy experts expect Harris to continue support for NATO and Ukraine.

In contrast to the Republican ticket, Harris has indicated she would not stray from NATO. “I firmly believe our commitment to build and sustain alliances has helped America become the most powerful and prosperous country in the world — alliances that have prevented wars, defended freedom and maintained stability from Europe to the Indo-Pacific,” Harris said at the Munich Security Conference in February.